Russian President Vladimir Putin and Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum shaking hands at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg. PHOTO ALEXANDER BELENKY/ WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM CC.

Peer-reviewed articles A longitudinal study of Russophone conspiracy theories about Ukraine. Content and methodological insights

This article, based on longitudinal ethnography of Russophone groups in Estonia, examines conspiracy theories about the war in Ukraine as they emerged and evolved ever since the full-scale invasion. First, I explore the initial narratives and the underlying vulnerabilities driving conspiratorial thinking. I then discuss why these theories became taboo. Finally, I propose a novel approach to studying self-censored conspiracy theories – the metalevel analysis – and present preliminary findings from research on Russian-speaking adolescents in Estonia.

Published in the printed edition of Baltic Worlds BW 2025:4,pages 13-25
Published on balticworlds.com on December 18, 2025

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abstract

This article, based on longitudinal ethnography of Russophone groups in Estonia, examines conspiracy theories about the war in Ukraine as they emerged and evolved ever since the full-scale invasion. First, I explore the initial narratives and the underlying vulnerabilities driving conspiratorial thinking. I then discuss why these theories became taboo. Finally, I propose a novel approach to studying self-censored conspiracy theories – the metalevel analysis – and present preliminary findings from research on Russian-speaking adolescents in Estonia.

KEYWORDS: Conspiracy theories, Estonia, disinformation, Russo-Ukrainian war, qualitative study.

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Anastasiya Astapova

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