Okategoriserade Public Opinion in the Baltic States: Political Culture and Support for Democracy

This is a presentation of three original public opinion surveys covering the Baltic states, that were recently released in the public domain. All three surveys have been designed specifically to tap the political culture of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, including the Russian-speaking poulation groups and other domestic ethnic minorities.

Published on balticworlds.com on August 7, 2024

No Comments on Public Opinion in the Baltic States: Political Culture and Support for Democracy Share
  • Facebook
  • del.icio.us
  • Pusha
  • TwitThis
  • Google
  • LinkedIn
  • Digg
  • Maila artikeln!
  • Skriv ut artikeln!

 

Abstract:

This is a presentation of three original public opinion surveys covering the Baltic states, that were recently released in the public domain. All three surveys have been designed specifically to tap the political culture of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, including the Russian-speaking poulation groups and other domestic ethnic minorities.

 

Introduction

Public opinion surveys are frequently used by political scientists to explain voting behavior and election outcomes, to monitor support for democracy and democracy related attitudes among citizens, or to investigate awareness of specific issues or topics.1 In communication studies, scholars use opinion surveys to measure media consumption patterns;2 and political sociologists use opinion surveys to measure people’s values and beliefs, engagement in societal affairs, tolerance towards ethnic minorities, support for gender equality, or the importance of religion.3 Other social scientists consult opinion polls to study nationalism, identity, cultural belonging, or geopolitical orientations among the general population in a country or across countries and regions. Public opinion surveys may also be used in historical analyses of events, to understand the general mood of population at a specific point in time or across time.4

 

A lot has been written on the political developments in the Baltic states since the breakup of the Soviet Union,5 including relations between the Baltic majority populations and the Russian-speaking minorities.6 Previous works have depicted the Baltic states as existing between East (the Soviet past) and West (the EU and NATO), but with an unfaltering orientation towards Europe and Western cooperation.7

 

Political Culture

When it comes to public opinion and studies of “political culture”,8 several works have focused on support for democracy and attitudinal differences between the ethnic groups in the region.9 Political culture is admittedly a rather vague concept that is nevertheless used frequently in political science when comparing countries. Basically, it refers to what the population know, feel and expect of their political system as a whole. The concept is related to legitimacy, political support and political trust.10 Although not exclusively based on surveys, the most common way of assessing the “political culture” of a country at a given point in time is to analyse nationwide representative public opinion polls,11 looking at citizens’ values, attitudes and orientations related to the political system. How do ordinary people perceive the general development of their own country? How much trust is there in the government, in the parliament, and other political and societal institutions?

 

Three Original Data Sets in the Public Domain

In late 2023 and early 2024, three original public opinion surveys covering the Baltic states were released in the public domain. All three surveys had been designed specifically to tap the political culture of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, including the Russian-speaking poulation groups and other domestic ethnic minorities. The data and metadata (variable overviews and technical reports) are freely available at the Swedish National Data Service (SND):

  • Baltic Barometer 2014. Public opinion data: representative samples of the adult populations in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, including the Russian-speaking and Polish minorities.12 Available at: https://doi.org/10.5878/vam5-jw90

  • Post-Crimea Barometer. Public opinion data: representative samples of the adult populations in Hungary, Bulgaria and Latvia, including the Russian-speaking minority.13 Available at: https://doi.org/10.5878/x25t-5c46

  • Baltic Barometer 2021. 30 Years after the fall of the Soviet Union. Public opinion data: representative samples of the adult populations in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.14 Available at: https://doi.org/10.5878/hk6s-pm71

 

The Baltic Barometer 2014 is based on representative samples of the adult populations in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, including the Russian-speaking and Polish minorities, generated within the framework of the research project “European Values Under Attack? Democracy, Disaffection and Minority Rights in the Baltic States”, funded by the Foundation for Baltic and East European Studies (Stockholm). The 2014 data collection was directly inspired by the opinion polls conducted by Richard Rose and associates (Centre for the Study of Public Policy at the University of Strathclyde) from the early 1990s and onwards, throughout the post-communist region: New Democracies Barometer (NDB) and New Baltic Barometer (NBB).15 In 2001, a research group headed by Sten Berglund (Örebro University, Sweden) teamed up with professor Rose to conduct a new round of the NDB, this time covering ten post-communist countries (New Europe Barometer 2001), and a forth round (in 2004) of the NBB. This was partly funded by grants from the Swedish Bank of Sweden Tercentenary Foundation (Riksbankens Jubileumsfond).

 

The idea with the 2014 data collection was to replicate a set of core questions from the 2001 and 2004 surveys, in order to document Baltic public opinion, a decade after EU membership.16 In each country, around 1,000 people from the majority populations were included, alongside about 500 people from the different ethnic minority groups (conventionally referred to as “Russian-speakers” or, in Lithuania, a Polish minority). The survey was coordinated by TNS Latvia (Riga), who also was responsible for collecting the Latvian sample, between 8 February and 8 March 2014 (n = 1507). The Estonian sample was collected by Saar Poll Ltd between 11 February and 5 March, 2014. As in Latvia, the Estonian survey was based on face-to-face interviews (n = 1500), in both in Estonian and Russian. The Lithuanian sample was collected by Vilmorus (Vilnius) between 21 February and 19 March, 2014 (face-to-face interviews, n = 1515).

 

The 2014 data collection coincided with the Russian annexation of Crimea, which justified a follow-up survey in Eastern Europe within the same research project (above). The Post-Crimea Barometer is based on representative samples of the adult populations in Hungary, Bulgaria and Latvia, including the Russian-speaking minority. The data collection was conducted from June through November 2015, coordinated by TSN Latvia and based on Computer Assisted Personal Interviews (CAPI) at the respondents’ place of residence. In Bulgaria and Hungary, the interviews were conducted in Bulgarian (n = 1010) or Hungarian (n = 1043), and in Latvia (n = 1501) in Latvian or Russian, according to the respondent’s choice. The 2014 and 2015 data have been used in several publications.17

 

Baltic Barometer 2021 is based on representative samples of the adult populations in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and was again coordinated by TSN Latvia within the framework of another research project – “Returning to Europe and Turning Away from ‘Europe?’” – funded again by the Foundation for Baltic and East European Studies (Stockholm). This time, Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI) were used, due to the COVID-19 situation. The nationally representative samples covered Estonia (12 May through 28 June 2021, n = 1500), Latvia (13 May through 22 June 2015, n = 1502) and Lithuania (11 May through 4 August 2021, n = 1501). The 2021 data have only been used in a few recent studies.18

 

A fourth data set was released at the same time as the three above, covering eight countries in Central and Eastern Europe (data from 2016):

 

  • Multi-country Social-Political Survey 2016. Public opinion data: representative samples of the adult populations in Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia.19 Available at: https://doi.org/10.5878/jr5z-c660

 

Attitudes towards Democracy and more

As for the actual contents, the idea with the 2014 data collection was, as already noted, to replicate previous opinion polls; and it includes a number of items familiar from the old NBB surveys: attitudes towards democracy and authoritarianism, trust in institutions, satisfaction with welfare state arrangements, security concerns, and a few measures of geopolitical orientations (attitudes towards the EU and Russia). The 2015 data collection covered the Crimea situation, in addition to the above-mentioned aspects. The 2016 data collection did not cover the Baltic states, but included a number of Central European cases (like Poland, Czechia, and Hungary). The timing of the survey (just after the 2015 European migrant crisis) justified more questions about refugees, migrants, and security concerns, and also included questions relating to media consumption and political populism. The 2021 data collection included all the themes covered in 2014, alongside a few questions about the (then still ongoing) COVID-19 pandemic, and – considering the authoritarian development in Russia – a few more questions about geopolitical orientations (attittides towards Russia and Putin). Since late 2023, all these data sets are part of the public domain.

 

References 

  1. Russel J. Dalton, Citizen Politics: Public Opinion and Political Parties in Advanced Industrial Democracies (New York and London: Chatham House Publishers, 2002); Pippa Norris, ed., Critical Citizens. Global Support for Democratic Government (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999); Pippa Norris, The Cultural Roots of Democratic Backsliding (New York: Oxford University Press, forthcoming 2025).

 

  1. Stylianos Papathanassopoulos and Andrea Miconi, eds., The Media Systems in Europe: Continuities and Discontinuities (Springer Studies in Media and Political Communication: Cham, 2023).

 

  1. Ronald Inglehart, Modernization and Postmodernization: Cultural, Economic and Political Chance in 43 Societies (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997).

 

  1. Kjetil Duvold, Sten Berglund and Joakim Ekman, Political Culture in the Baltic States. Between National and European Integration (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2020).

 

  1. Analol Lieven, The Baltic Revolution: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and the Path to Independence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1993); Thomas Lane, Artis Pabriks, Aldis Purs and David J. Smith (2002) The Baltic States: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (London: Routledge, 2002); Sten Berglund and Kjetil Duvold, eds., Baltic Democracy at the Crossroads: An Elite Perspective (Oslo: Norwegian Academic Press, 2003); Daunis Auers, “Latvia” in Sten Berglund et al., eds., The Handbook of Political Change in Eastern Europe (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2013); Kjetil Duvold and Mindaugas Jurkynas, “Lithuania” in Sten Berglund et al., eds., The Handbook of Political Change in Eastern Europe (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2013); Daunis Auers, Comparative Politics and Government of the Baltic States (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015).

 

  1. Dovile Budryte, Taming Nationalism? Political Community Building in the Post-Soviet Baltic States (London: Routledge, 2005); Timofej Agarin, A Cat’s Lick: Democratisation and Minority Communities in the Post-Soviet Baltic (Leiden: Brill, 2010); Eva-Clarita Pettai, ed., Memory and Pluralism in the Baltic States (London: Routledge, 2011); Ammon Cheskin, Russian Speakers in Post-Soviet Latvia: Discursive Identity Strategies(Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2016); Licia Cianetti, The Quality of Divided Democracies: Minority Inclusion, Exclusion, and Representation in the New Europe (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2019).

 

  1. David J. Galbreath, Ainius Lašas and Jeremy W. Lamoreaux, Continuity and Change in the Baltic Sea Region: Comparing Foreign Policies(Amsterdam: Pedopi, 2008); Eiki Berg and Piret Ehin, eds., Identity and Foreign Policy: Baltic-Russian Relations and European Integration (London: Routledge, 2009); Andres Kasekamp, A History of the Baltic States (Basingstoke and New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010); Aldis Purs, Baltic Facades: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania since 1945 (Chicago: Chicago University Press, 2012); Richard Mole, The Baltic States from the Soviet Union to the European Union. Identity, Discourse and Power in the Post-Communist Transition of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (London: Routledge, 2012).

 

  1. Camelia F. Voinea, ”Political Culture Research: Dilemmas and Trends. Prologue to the Special Issue”, Quality & Quantity, vol. 54, 2020, 361–382.

 

  1. Richard Rose, William Mischler and Christian Harpfer, Democracy and Its Alternatives. Understanding Post-Communist Societities (Oxford: Polity Press, 1998); Richard Rose, Sten Berglund and Neil Munro, Nation-States with Multi-National Populations: Cross-Cutting Cleavages in the Baltic States (Glasgow: Centre for the Study of Public Policy no. 389, University of Strathclyde, 2004); Kjetil Duvold, Making Sense of Baltic Democracy(Örebro University: Örebro Studies in Political Science, 2006); Kadri Lühiste, ”Explaining Trust in Political Institutions: Some Illustrations from the Baltic States”, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, vol. 39, no. 4, 2006, 475-496; Kadri Lühiste, “Support for Strongman Rule in Ethnically Divided Societies: Evidence from Estonia and Latvia”, Democratization, vol. 15, no. 2, 2008, 297-320; Kadri Lühiste, Regime Support in European Democracies (Tartu: University of Tartu, 2013); Piret Ehin, “Political Support in the Baltic States, 1993–2004”, Journal of Baltic Studies, vol. 38, no. 1, 2007, 1–20; Kjetil Duvold and Sten Berglund, “Democracy Between Ethnos and Demos: Territorial Identification and Political Support in the Baltic States”, East European Politics and Societies, vol. 28, no. 2, 2014; Kjetil Duvold, “When Left and Right is a Matter of Identity: Overlapping Political Dimensions in Estonia and Latvia” in Andrey Makarychev and Alexandra Yatsyk, eds., Borders in the Baltic Sea Region: Suturing the Ruptures (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017); Duvold, Berglund and Ekman, Political Culture.

 

  1. Gabriel Almond and Sidney Verba, The Civic Culture (Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1963); Gabriel Almond and Sidney Verba, eds., The Civic Culture Revisited: An Analytical Study (Boston and Toronto: Little, Brown and Company, 1980); Inglehart, Modernization and Postmodernization.

 

  1. Norris, Critical Citizens; Duvold, Berglund and Ekman, Political Culture.

 

  1. Joakim Ekman, Kjetil Duvold and Sten Berglund, Baltic Barometer 2014. Public opinion data: representative samples of the adult populations in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, including the Russian-speaking and Polish minorities (Stockholm: Södertörn University, 2023). Available at: https://doi.org/10.5878/vam5-jw90

 

  1. Joakim Ekman, Kjetil Duvold and Sten Berglund, Post-Crimea Barometer. Public opinion data: representative samples of the adult populations in Hungary, Bulgaria and Latvia, including the Russian-speaking minority (Stockholm: Södertörn University, 2023). Available at:https://doi.org/10.5878/x25t-5c46

 

  1. Joakim Ekman, Kjetil Duvold and Sten Berglund, Baltic Barometer 2021. 30 Years after the fall of the Soviet Union. Public opinion data: representative samples of the adult populations in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (Stockholm: Södertörn University, 2023). Available at: https://doi.org/10.5878/hk6s-pm71

 

  1. For an oview of these surveys and the specific aspects they included, see Rose, Mischler and Haerpfer, Democracy and Its Alternatives.

 

  1. Rose, Berglund and Munro, Nation-States; Richard Rose, Insiders and Outsiders: New Baltic Barometer 2004, Studies in Public Policy 401 (Glasgow: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, University of Strathclyde, 2005).

 

  1. See for example: Kjetil Duvold and Joakim Ekman, “Nationality-Driven Soviet Nostalgia: Determinants of Retrospective Regime Evaluation in the Baltic States”, Twentieth Century Communism, vol. 11, no. 11 (“Nostalgia”), 2016, 43–66; Joakim Ekman and Kjetil Duvold, “Political Communities and Potential Ethnic Tension in the Baltic States” in Tobias Spöri, ed., Frozen Post-Soviet Conflicts (London: Routledge, 2018); Duvold, Berglund and Ekman, Political Culture.

 

  1. Kjetil Duvold and Thomas Sedelius, ”Presidents Between National Unity and Ethnic Divisions: Public Trust Across the Baltic States”, Journal of Baltic Studies, vol. 54, no. 2, 2023, 175–196; Joakim Ekman, “In the Shadow of War: Public Opinion in the Baltic States, 2014 and 2021”, Special Issue on the “Baltic Region as a Place of Contacts”, edited by Kapitolina Fedorova and Anna Verschik, Journal of Eurasian Studies (forthcoming, 2024); Joakim Ekman, Kjetil Duvold and Sten Berglund (2024, forthcoming) “Geopolitical Orientations in Central and Eastern Europe”, Special Issue on geopolitical orientations, East European Politics (forthcoming, 2024).

 

  1. Joakim Ekman, Kjetil Duvold and Sten Berglund, Multi-country Social-Political Survey 2016. Public opinion data: representative samples of the adult populations in Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia (Stockholm: Södertörn University, 2023). Available at: https://doi.org/10.5878/jr5z-c660